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BIHRMANN's THOUGHTS                       
   ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGES

 This is a collection of basic thoughts and facts around climate changes in general.  The way of the nature versus the influence of human kind.
 Humans are not the first species to alter the climate, and those who have done it before us, have been very efficient. The first traces of life, which occurred in the sea started building an atmosphere that aloud life on dry land.
 Maintaining Status Quo?
 Preserving the Earth as it is, sounds like a glorious project. On the other hand; the climate and inhabitants of the Earth have changed a lot in the past 4.5 billion years.
 The major changes have all been caused by the climate (altered by other factors). We might be able to affect it, but in general, there are way too strong forces in game, for the humankind.

 Bio-Effects
 It it just the humans that causes environment changes?
 The short answer will be: No.
Since the first traces of life, organises have been part of the changing environment of the Earth. Creating the atmosphere, including oxygen O2 and ozone O3 for starters.
 Binding or releasing some minerals, creating or binding organic compounds. Building refs, breaking down soil, just to name a few.

 Non-Bio-Effects
 Some of the most powerful alterations to the climate have been caused by volcanic eruptions, meteors, intergalactic radiation, drift of continents and the movement of the planet.
 These factors will continue to affect the climate, humans or not. We just have to learn to live with it.

 The Earth was a hostile place in the beginning. 3800 millions years ago (mya), the first traces of life was found in the sea. A setback 800-600 mya due to an ice age let to an explosion of species in the sea, 500 mya. Then a new disaster 439 mya which then let to insects on the dry land among the first plants. 364 mya, and a new setback - or help? That let to the amphibians occupying the land and then the reptiles.

 

 New ice age 251 mya, and the stage was cleared for the dinosaurs, conifers then birds, and then the first mammals. New disaster, probably the meteor in Mexico, and the stage was set for the rule of mammals. The evolution of flowering plants 140 mya leading to rainforests, which led to more nutrition washing out into the sea, which lead to the massive amount of diatoms, binding the CO2  which let the grassland reclaiming the land from the trees who suffered from the lack of CO2.
  Pretty calm until the ice age 3 mya, which let to the evaluation of Homo sapiens.Then a new calm period for a very long time. A small ice age 12000 years ago, but since, the major changes have probably been caused by the humans - or not. Only tiny alterations, seen in the big perspective, but are something big coming, and what causes it?
 Climate Changes.
 As seen above, climate changes have occurred all along the Earths history. Some have been real devastating for its inhabitants, but have let to the evolution of new species.  The major players in climate changes can be divided up into two groups: Disasters and Cyclises.
  The cyclic, which occurs on a paten which can be traced back in time, and predicted in the future. Life might adopt and migrate to suitable environments and survive, during these rather slow changes.
The disasters, not predictable, and which might hit the species real hard due to the immediacy impact, leaving no room to adaptation and escape.
The Disasters:
* Meteors
* Vulcan eruptions
* Supernovas
* Drift of the continents
* (Homo sapiens)

 Is the current global heating a human made disaster, or is it just one of these changes the Earth goes through?

 The Cyclic: Year

      Changes

Earth ellipse around the sun 100.000 20-30% off a perfect circle
Earth axel tilt 42.000 21,8-24,4 degrades from the sun
Earth axel direction 220.000 North star - Vega. Vega = extreme summer/winter
Sun through milky way finger disc

240.000.000

Up and down in the milky way disc.
Sun through each milky way finger

Changes  

All the way around is 250 millions years
Sun activity app.11 Roughly, but it do change
Colliding with the Magellan Cloud 1 Billion Huge changes in the cosmic radiation
The Earth's ellipse, axel tilt and direction is in the Melankovitch cycles.
 At any given time, some parameters pull  the climate against the ice ages while others causes a global heating.
 Through the history, there have been no ice at the poles in some periods, while other have been dominated by ice, joining at equator; the snowball earth.
 Some effects are like a light switch: Either on or off, caused by positive-feedbacks.
 Is The Current Global Heating Only Caused by Humans?
 
I have seen several answers to this, and I'll list a few:
* No, shit happens.
* Yes, we should stop the CO2 emission right away.
* No, it is all about cosmic radiation, forming more or less clouds.
* Yes, we have chopped down the trees that produces Isoprene, that leads to clouds.
  It might very well be a combination. The first response might be right, if the third is.

 If the raising in temperature is caused by CO2 , why was the Earth not warmer 55 mya, when the CO2 concentration was 500 to 2000 ppm? In the last 200 years, it have raised from 280 to 350 ppm. More about CO2 below.
 CO2 is reflecting the heat, but only 1/30 of the reflection from clouds.

That leads us to the last two theories

      Clouds and the lack of them.
 In my mind, there are no doubt of the impact clouds have on the climate. The clouds might work as a blanket in the cold nights, but they prevent the sun from heating the Earth's surface during the day. The "blanket-effect" is only 1/10 of the "heater-effect". That means: More clouds, colder climate.

Until recently, the forming of clouds have been a mystery. Damp in it selves are quite transparent, but when the water molecules starts to cluster, they obtain colour.

Scientists from Caltech in Californian have discovered that isoprene, made by deciduous  trees brake down to dihydroxyepoxid, which "glues" the water molecules into tiny drops.  But it rained before the trees came.

  Another theory, which have had a tough life until now, is Henning Svendsmark's: Cosmic radiation forms clouds.
 To me, it is the most complete explanation on not only the present heating of the planet, but also those who occurred in the past. I have studied it for quite some time, but here are some real short notes.
The life of the Planet  - in short.  
Era Period Époque/continents Event Million Y PPM CO2

Ice Ages

    Anthrocaen "Long Summer"

0-300 y

280-350 13-1850 small
  Quaternary Holocene   0,008 160 1000 varm
      Big Squeeze 0,1   Ice Age
    Pleistocene Humans 1,8    
      S + N America joins 3    
    Pliocene Upraise primates 5,3    
Cenozoic   Miocene Reduced rainforest 23,8    
  Tertiary Oligocaene More Vertebrates 33,7    
    ------------- Methane from ice 55  500->2000
    Eocene Antarctic/Australia 55,5 Lignite  
    Palaeocaene Mass extinction 65    
  Cretaceous   Flowering plants 145    
  Jurassic   Birds 213    
  Triassic Pangea Dinosaurs 248    
  ----------- 500-180 Ice age  251   Ice Age
Mesozoikum Permian   Conifers+Reptiles 340 286 Antracit   
  Carboniferous Gondwana Amphibians 360 coal  
  ---------- ~550-30 Mass extinction 364    
  Devon Joins Insects 410    
  ------------ til 180 Mass extinction 439    
  Silurian Laurasia Fish 440    
Paleozoic Ordovician 300-60 Sea vertebrates 505    
  Cambrian Pannotia 600-540 Cam. Explosion of life 544    
Proterozoic   Rodinia 1100-750 Ice Age  800-600   Ice Age
    Columbia   18-1500    
    Nena   1800    
    Kenorland 2700   2500    
Achaeikum   Ur 3000 Organic life 3800    
Hadean   Vaalbara 3600 Creation 4500 0  

As mentioned before, there are several cyclic periods for the sun and earth. Each of them have an impact to the amount of high energy particles that passes through the atmosphere. These particles are a key player in the forming of clouds. 

 There are two major factors: The incoming radiation from cosmic and the suns ability to shields the earth from them. 

 The Major Radiation.
 The major variations in radiation is caused by the collision with the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy that passes the Milky Way from time to time.
 The two galaxies have collided in two periods;  3 to 2 billion year ago, and again 1 billion year ago until recently. That have caused huge amounts of radiation, causing many clouds, causing low temperatures on Earth.

  The Major Reflection.
 In the beginning, 4,6 to 3 billions years ago, the sun was real active, and its magnetic field offered the Earth much protection. After that period, it have been more stabilised, and only caused minor alterations.

 It is remarkable how much this curve resembles the curve of biological activity on Earth!

 The Minor Alterations of Recent Years.
 The amount of radiation from the galactic is a result of where we are in the galaxy and  the eruptions of supernovas. The sun's magnetic field changes with its activity, shown by the sunspots. High activity equals strong magnetic fields, which shields us from the high energy cosmic particles, and fewer clouds are formed.

 In short: Active sun - high temperature and
 High cosmic radiation - low temperatures.

 If that is the case, we don't have to have a bad conscience regarding the climate, although we might have added our bit. If we see it in the real great perspective, I doubt we can add much to the Earths coming history. We will only be a short,  but annoying incidence, and the cyclic and unexpected changes that will come in the next millions of years, will probably wipe out all marks we have left. It is only seen in the micro quantum-like perspective we matters at all.  

 BUT THAT IS NO EXCUSE TO SPOIL THE MARVELLOUS NATURE WE SHOULD BE PART OF!

Accordantly to Laurence Hecht, the  CO2 readings is a hoax. While the ice core measurements form a straight, raising line, the readings made by well established scientists, using precisely methods (+/-3%) at their time, show a completely other graph.

 While looking at these numbers, 350-380ppm does not explain the raise temperature. Link

 We are only here for a short time. As guests, we are not aloud to make any changes. We don't seem to be able to act with enough courtesy, and we have to change that.

 One simple solution: An airborne Ebola, which wipes out all the "civilized" people, leaving the few remaining Indians who still live in harmony with Mother Earth.

 I hope I can come up with a better solution!

Sources:
Alan Weisman
The World without Us Climate 2008 Borgen
H. Svensmark & N. Calder Climate & Cosmos Climate 2007 Gads Forlag
Tim Flannery The Weather Makers Climate 2006 Ries
Brian Greene The Elegant Universe Physicist 1999 Vintage
Laurence Hecht True CO2 Records Buried under Gore Physicist 2007 ERI Science

And a lot more from the internet and things I have picked up through time. 

      All photos can be seen in lager solution with location on
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IN THIS SERIES: Thoughts about; Climate, Conservation, Extinction, Mankind and My Contribution.